Towards a return to a more balanced real estate market in Quebec? 📉🏡
Towards a return to a more balanced real estate market in Quebec? 📉🏡
For several years, the real estate market in the greater Quebec City area has been moving at a very rapid pace. 🔥
Overbidding, queues for property viewings, properties sold in a matter of days… many buyers felt they had to buy quickly, sometimes even without thinking too long, simply to succeed in obtaining a property.
But lately, some signals are quietly starting to change. 👀
And many are now wondering:
Are we returning to a more balanced market?
Personally, I believe so. And several logical factors seem to point in that direction.
📈 Fixed rates starting to show signs of rising again
Even though variable rates have generated a lot of chatter in recent years, it is often the fixed rates that strongly influence buyers' behavior.
And currently, several global economic elements create pressure.
Tensions in the Middle East 🌍 are already impacting the price of oil and gas. When energy costs rise:
- the transportation of goods becomes more expensive 🚛
- production costs increase 🏭
- several companies pass these costs on to consumers 💸
Result?
Inflation can start rising again… or at least slow down much less quickly than expected.
And when inflation remains high, central banks become much more cautious before cutting rates. Some financial institutions may even adjust their fixed rates upward before anyone else.
🔁 A scenario reminiscent of 2023
We’ve experienced it recently.
In 2023, several buyers were convinced that rates would quickly drop… but ultimately, increases continued longer than expected. 📊
The result was quite clear:
- several buyers withdrew from the market
- mortgage payments exploded for some budgets
- bidding wars slowed in several sectors
- sale timelines began to lengthen
It wasn’t a real estate crash. ❌
But clearly a slowdown of the ultra-aggressive market we’ve known since 2020.
🏠 Mortgage renewals could change a lot of things
It’s probably one of the most important elements for the coming years.
Many homeowners bought or renewed their mortgage in 2020 or 2021 at historically low rates. 📉
Some had rates around:
- 1.5%
- 1.8%
- 2%
Today, these same homeowners sometimes face renewals around:
- 4%
- 5%
- sometimes more
And even if many households are still in a solid financial position, the difference in monthly payments can become enormous. 💰
In some cases:
- the budget becomes tighter
- some projects are questioned
- some owners might decide to sell
- others might want to cut their expenses or maintenance
👴👵 A generation also reaching a turning point
Another important phenomenon is quietly beginning to appear.
Many homeowners are aging and approaching retirement. 🌿
After years of maintaining:
- a large yard
- a pool
- a multi-storey home
- constant renovations
… many simply start wanting something else.
Less maintenance.
Less obligations.
More simplicity.
And this could bring a significant number of additional properties onto the market in the coming years.
⚖️ Fewer aggressive buyers + more sellers = return to balance?
For several years, the main issue was simple:
There were far too many buyers for the number of properties available.
But if:
- some buyers temporarily leave the market
- mortgage payments limit budgets
- bidding wars become less frequent
- more sellers enter the market
… then gradually, supply and demand could begin to re-align. 📊
And that is exactly what typically creates a more balanced market.
🤝 A balanced market isn’t bad news
Often, people associate a slowdown with something negative. Yet, a balanced market can be much healthier for everyone.
For buyers 🏡 :
- more time to think
- less pressure
- ability to include conditions
- less aggressive competition
For sellers 📦 :
- buyers often more serious
- fewer unrealistic promises
- transactions sometimes more stable
And for the market in general :
- better stability
- less emotions
- prices that evolve more naturally
🔍 The real estate market operates in cycles
Real estate is never completely fixed.
There are periods :
- very favorable to sellers 📈
- very favorable to buyers 📉
- and others much more balanced ⚖️
Personally, I believe we could quietly approach this third phase.
Not necessarily a collapse.
Not necessarily a dramatic drop in prices.
But possibly :
- a more rational market
- calmer
- with less automatic bidding
- and more negotiation
And honestly… maybe that’s not a bad thing. 😊
📲 Do you have questions about your situation?
Whether you are :
- a homeowner considering options 🤔
- a buyer hesitating ⏳
- or simply curious to understand where the market is headed 📍
… each situation deserves tailored analysis.
The market changes quickly, and sometimes the right timing depends more on your personal reality than on the headlines.
François Couillard
Residential real estate broker
Via Capitale Sélect Inc.
📞 581-745-7879